Scenarios provide the most effective approach to developing a business strategy. Scenarios are stories about the future, each one modeling a distinct, plausible world. Different courses of action are required to meet different futures.
We consider scenario-based strategy development the most effective approach to developing a business focused information technology strategy. Utilizing scenarios increases our understanding of possible future outcomes.
Scenarios require you to think about the future and to consider what different courses of action you should follow to meet different circumstances. This enables the development of a strategy that does not depend on favourable events or the maintenance of the current business environment, to achieve favourable results.
Scenarios do not pinpoint future events, rather they highlight forces that shape the future. We make these forces visible, and use them as a foil to our thinking. To find that "robust" strategy, several scenarios are explored.
Synthesis of the scenarios and strategies enables the development of a strategy that does not depend on favourable events or the maintenance of the current business environment, to achieve favourable results. Given the impossibility of knowing the future, a good strategy is one that works well across several possible futures.
Coaching is a recognized tool for enhancing leadership and benefiting organizational effectiveness. Hornford Associates recommends executive coaching as part of information technology strategy development. One-on-one business coaching with strategy development team members helps them to capitalize on individual strengths, increase personal awareness, and enhance leadership capabilities which will support leaders and teams to function more effectively. Coaching helps facilitate change and builds bridges between individual and organizational goals - critical requirements to the development of an effective strategy.
A common service we provide is the 3D Group's Leadership Navigator survey. The Leadership Navigator provides a 360 Degree assessment focused on specific competencies required for specific job functions. We normally use the Leadership Navigator for these roles:
- Senior Executives (CEO, Pres)
- Executives (EVP, SVP, VP)
- Corporate Leaders (Dir, Mgr)
- Individual Contributors
As an active member of the Open Group' s Architecture Forum, Hornford Associates is working to embed the utilization of strategy and effective use of scenarios within enterprise architecture.
In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield.
-- Warren Buffett
A good set of reference material for using scenario planning in strategy development can be found at themanager.org
The Mont Fleur scenarios provide a stunning example of how scenario thinking can outline the problem, highlight possible path, and the paths' problems. The Mont Fleur scenarios looked at the future of South Africa and were done in 1992.
This issue of Deeper News presents the Mont Fleur scenarios as they were originally published in South Africa in 1992, with an updated introduction by Adam Kahane, the scenario facilitator, that explains and summarizes the original project, its context, and its results.
